There are few more popular forms of betting than wagering on horse racing and poker. The two famous past times have been passed through generations, ensuring that the popularity of each remains as prominent in this modern day as it has ever been.
Both have the ability to appeal to new audiences, with racing’s biggest events on the calendar such as the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup reaching mainstream audiences.
During this time, bettors typically look to learn more about the markets available, while calculators such as the one here ensures that parlay odds for selections can be worked out quickly: https://www.twinspires.com/wager-types/
But, what are some of the parallels between the words of poker and horse racing handicapping?
Expected Value
Both poker and racing losing wagers is part of the game, but the betting math always indicates that long-term value can be achieved by following a set strategy. This comes in the form of Expected Value in poker, as +EV calculates the money that a bettor will make over a certain amount of time.
This typically ensures that a player can’t be too downbeat after being given a bad hand, and they will instead need to take the odds to justify the risk of chasing the draw. Horse racing is similar in this, with handicappers typically assessing overlays.
This is where a horse that is perceived by the bettor to have a 30% chance of winning is betted heavily by the public to give the same selection a 50% implied probability of winning.
An overlay bet is when the opposite thing happens, as the public allows a runner to drift to a lower implied probability than perceived by the bettor. Wagering on overlays such as this can typically be a successful long-term strategy for horse players.
Range Construction
In both poker and racing, it is all about seeing the bigger picture and not making judgement calls in the moment. Thinking ahead is a solid strategy when it comes to poker and making bets on horse racing.
In poker, elite players will not try and put an opponent on a single hand, and instead they will attempt to put them on a range of hands, which will open doors to potential strategies that could perform best for the distribution of cards. This is also similar in horse racing, as experienced bettors will construct pace maps to identify the most logical angles that a race could play out.
This will examine which horse will set the pace, and which runners could be best suited by a fast or slow tempo. Setting this dynamic will give a bettor a clearer picture in their mind as to how a race could play out.
There is also further evidence of long-term planning in horse racing, as experienced bettors could pinpoint potential end-season goals for runners before betting markets have had the time to catch up. Finding value in antepost markets could ensure that bettors will get significantly better odds by making their selections in advance of the final fields being declared.
Exotics & Combinatorics
Horse racing and poker betting is also similar in the way that managing complexity and maximizing leverage through combinations through mathematical edge can be rewarded. In poker, this is through Combinatorics. High stakes players have the ability to count card combinations to determine exactly how likely it is that an opponent will be required to bluff in order to win a hand.
This is done through working out the probability of the opponent having a good hand or having a bad hand. Combinations can also be used in horse handicapping by taking advantage of Exotic tickets.
Many players will typically get involved in Pick 4, 5, or 6s, and experienced players will use this to adapt combinatorial structuring. They can leverage solid favorites across multiple legs, while also including potential secondary and third selections that may be available at bigger prices to ensure that they are covered should there be a shock result.
This can maximise potential pay outs without having to increase the ticket costs exponentially.
Bankroll Management
An important strategy that should be considered when playing poker and making bets on horse racing is a sensible bankroll management. This includes putting aside a set amount to play with, and then not exceeded the designated total.
Exceeding a budget can lead to ill-informed decisions when gambling, and could ensure that a bettor chases their losses. This means that a poker player must accurately set aside how much they are willing to play on each hand, while a horse bettor will determine how much that they are willing to wager on a given race.
Being sensible with bankroll is important to ensure that long-term profits can be achieved, ensuring that all players should determine when to stop playing if the luck just isn’t on their side on a given day.
